IMF has released its 2012 World Economic Outlook report. According to the Fund’s analysts, the world economy will not do much better in 2013: they predict meager 3,6% growth (in comparison with the projected 3,3% in 2012). This is bad news for global stability, given that world population was forecast to hit 7 billion mark next year, Middle Eastern crises are likely to keep energy prices afloat and territorial water spats in Asia are still unresolved.
The IMF estimate should be taken with a grain (or rather a pound) of salt, though: much will depend on the policies undertaken by the US and China administrations. Both of them will be reshuffled at the end of this year, perhaps with little regard for IMF analysts’ expectations. The question is not whether the protracted stagnation will influence global politics in the year to come. It is rather how bad this impact is going to be, amid rising nationalism, autarkic tendencies and religious fundamentalism.